NFL Week 1: Sunday Best Bets and Leans
Gambling Opinion by Ethan Irish and Josh Blatt
NFL Betting Records
Ethan: 1-0-0
Josh: 2-0-0
Game: Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Ethan's Best Bet: Austin Ekeler Anytime TD (-140) (Caesars Sportsbook)
The Los Angeles Chargers will be taking on the Las Vegas Raiders to start the 2022-23 NFL regular season. This game currently has the second highest total of week one at O/U 52 meaning a lot of points will be scored in this game. On Fanduel the Chargers team total is O/U 27 and to me this signals that bookmakers are inferring that they will score 3 if not 4 touchdowns in this game.
Austin Ekeler has scored at least one touchdown in 3 of his last 4 week one appearances. The fifth week 1 appearance was Ekeler's rookie year where he played only 5% of the snaps and had 0 rushing attempts. In one of the 3 where he has scored he managed to cross the goal line 3 different times (2 receiving and 1 rushing). Last season, Ekeler scored 18 times (6 receiving and 12 rushing) through 16 games giving him an average of 1.125 touchdowns per game. Ekeler's involvement in the passing game makes this bet for me giving him two different areas of the offense to reach the endzone.
This week he faces off against a Raiders team that has to contain not only Ekeler but also wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams who are big threats on the outside. Not only will those two receivers have decent games against the Raiders secondary who is ranked 29rd in the league by PFF but the defensive line is ranked 19th and the linebacker unit ranked 23th. I believe Ekeler will have a good week one and I like -140 to reach the endzone.
Ethan's Other Leans:
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets: Ravens -6.5 (-110) (Caesars Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow o257.5 pass yards (-117) (Caesars Sportsbook)
Game: Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
Josh's Best Bet: Lamar Jackson o59.5 Rushing Yards (-113) (Fanduel)
I'm a huge fan of the "Anytime TD" bet, especially with a dual-threat quarterback lining up in the backfield. The Jets don't have the type of juice to contain Lamar Jackson in my opinion, but I was looking at Jackson's rushing touchdown numbers last season and he scored two rushing touchdowns in 12 games, both of them being against the Chiefs and I'm not too sure if that's the right call. I'm more certain in a feat that Jackson accomplished in six out of those 12 games, 60 rushing yards-- he had Marquise Brown at the time and if the Ravens are going to be successful this year, they're going to need Jackson to use his legs.
Jackson faces off against the Jets, who happened to give 138.3 rushing yards per game last season, which was good for the fifth worst in the NFL. I don't That mark is enough for me to believe that he will hit the over on his rushing prop. He averages 63.3 rushing yards per game in his four seasons. He has the potential to run for even more considering running back J.K. Dobbins is listed as questionable, if he misses week one, Lamar is a complete lock for o59.5.
Josh's Other Leans:
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: Saints ML (-240), Jameis Winston o227.5 pass yards (-113) [Parlay into +186] (Fanduel)
New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans: Titans -5.5 (-110) (Fanduel)