NFL Week 4: Best Bets and Leans
Gambling Opinion by Josh Blatt and Ethan Irish
Game: Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Josh's Best Bet: Jonathon Taylor o91.5 Rushing Yards (-113) (Fanduel)
Jonathon Taylor has played against two top eight rushing defenses in his first three games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs, and in the one game where he played against a bottom tier rushing defense? He rushed for 161 yards. This weekend Taylor and the Colts are matched up with the 4th worst rushing defense with the Tennessee Titans. I see Michael Pittman Jr. taking attention off of Taylor, especially with some potential early Frank Reich shots downfield. The Titans are allowing the most yards per carry out of any team in the league at 5.8, allowing a total of 435 yards.
The Titans just don't have the type of rushing defense that will be able to keep up with Jonathon Taylor, even if it's a divisional matchup. Taylor averages 4.4 yards per carry against the Titans in his career, and this is the worst that defense has looked in his time in the league. Titans' linebacker Ola Adeniyi and cornerback Roger McCreary are both listed as questionable and linebacker Zach Cunningham as well as safety Amani Hooker and defensive back Ugo Amadi. With all of the players banged up for Tennessee, I don't see them being able to contain Jonathon Taylor.
Josh's Other Leans: (via Fanduel)
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions:
Lions Moneyline (-184), Jamaal Williams Anytime TD Scorer (-135)
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys:
Carson Wentz o1.5 Passing TDs (+162), Noah Brown o39.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Jets Spread +3.5 (-115)
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders: Russell Wilson o238.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts o1.5 Passing TDs (+102)
Game: Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
Ethan's Best Bet: Saquon Barkley Rushing Attempts O18.5 (-105) (DraftKings)
Currently Saquon Barkley is averaging 17.6 rush attempts per game and with the injury of wide receiver Sterling Shepard for the Giants it is easy to assume he will go over this number at 18.5. Along with this injury when we look at what the Chicago rush defense has done through the first 3 games of the season, it has not been great. They rank 29th in opponent rush attempts per game at 33 per game and 30th in opponent rushing yards per game at 157 per game. I am expecting Barkley to shoulder a lot of the weight for this New York Giants offense. Another number I thought about was the rushing plus receiving prop for Barkley but I don't usually like to take props greater than 100 yards, never know the game script. What I do know is the Giants will feed Saquon the ball.
Also, when looking at other games for this Chicago defense, they allowed Dameon Pierce to rush 20 times in their 23-20 win against the Texans. They also let the RB duo of the Packers, A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones combine for 33 attempts, 193 yards, and a touchdown. There might be a focus for the Bears defense on Saquon but I don't think it will matter much because the Giants go as far as he takes them.
Ethan's Other Leans:
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson Rush Yards O54.5 (-114) (Fanduel)
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants: Total U39.5 (-110) (Fanduel)
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman Jr. Rec. Yards O69.5 (-114) (Barstool)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Bucs: Tampa Bay -1 (-109) (Barstool)
[PARLAY] New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers:
Romeo Doubs Receptions O3.5 -165/Green Bay ML -480, (+107) (Barstool)