NFL Week 5: Best Bets and Leans
Gambling Opinion by Ethan Irish and Josh Blatt
Game: Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots
Ethan's Best Bet: Damien Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125) (Caesars)
The Lions while being the highest scoring offense in the league also give up the most points in the league. Their defense is awful and with rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe seemingly starting the week for the Patriots I expect a heavy dose of rushing attempts. Even if it was Mac Jones starting for the Patriots I would expect this. The Lions through 4 weeks this season allow an average of 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game and on top of this New England ranks 8th in rush play percentage at 47.3%.
Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson handle the running back duties for the Patriots and split carries almost evenly. While Stevenson gets a lot of usage he only has one touchdown this season while Harris has 3 through four games this season. I would expect a utilization of Harris in the red zone when the Patriots get there. I am actually surprised this prop is plus money with how bad the Lions defense is.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
Josh's Best Bet: Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+230) (Fanduel)
The Arizona Cardinals have been notoriously bad at guarding tight ends this season. They rank dead last against opposing tight ends according to Pro Football Focus, and on top of that Jalen Hurts has a 127.8 passer rating while targeting his tight ends this season. This seems like a match made in heaven for those who are looking for a longer odds bet to throw money on, or to even parlay today. His yardage prop is set at 45.5, which you'll see below in my leans as well.
I'm expecting a huge day out of the Philadelphia Eagles as a whole-- but especially from Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert. The Cardinals defense is extremely susceptible to crossing routes, especially up the field, they just seem to get beat by simple routes, I know Eagles coach Nick Sirianni likes his "dog mentality," as well as complicated motion plays, I say keep it simple and feed the big guy.
Ethan's Other Leans:
Green Bay @ New York Giants: - Aaron Jones Rush Yards O58.5 (-115) (BetMGM) - Kenny Clark Tackles + Assists O3.5 (-150) (BetMGM)
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: D. Pierce Rush Attempts U16.5 (-125)(Caesars)
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers Total U39.5 (-110) (Caesars)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns: Browns ML (+115) (DraftKings)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Mixon Rec. Yards O21.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
Add:
Moneyline Parlay: Jacksonville ML, San Francisco ML, Buffalo ML (+104) (DraftKings)
Josh's Other Leans: (via Fanduel)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals: Dallas Goedert o45.5 yards (-110)
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: James Robinson Anytime TD Scorer (-135)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills: Von Miller to Record a Sack (-176)
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson o83.5 Receiving Yards (-110)