TNF Preview and Bets: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Sports Preview by Ethan Irish and Josh Blatt
With week one of college football coming to a close, the 2022-23 season of football is here. We will have consistent college football Saturdays and NFL Sundays for the next three months.
TNF: Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
The NFL starts this Thursday with first game of the season between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams and we could not be more excited for it.
The Bills are currently sitting as -2.5 point favorites over the reigning Super Bowl Champions, ON THE ROAD. This game deserves the primetime slot and the first game of the season. These two teams will likely be in the "Super Bowl contender" conversation for the entirety of the season. The Bills are coming off an 11-6 regular season last year, winning the AFC East which is not hard to do and a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round in last year's playoffs (finally a switch in the OT rules...). On the other side, the Rams are trying to defend their Super Bowl title this season after going 12-5 in the regular season and ultimately beating the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 in Super Bowl LVI.
Ethan's Take:
Both of these teams are arguably in the top 5 in the league on paper, and if they aren't they are both at least top 8. The Bills averaged more than 28 points per game last year and I don't have any reason as to why that would change. In close games they also like to pass the ball, a lot. In games where the end result was within 7 points, Josh Allen threw the ball 45.8 times on average over five games. However, to achieve this, he has to get rid of the ball fast. Last season when Allen stayed in the pocket for less than 2.5 seconds versus more than 2.5 seconds, there is an obvious difference. He got sacked more, his QBR dropped from 100.4 to 82.1, and his completion percentage went from 70.51 to 54.48. So while last season he passed the ball a lot in tight games I think there will be more to the offensive scheme than just having Josh Allen chuck the ball downfield. By the way, the Bills ended up going 0-5 in these one score games I am referring too.
According to PFF the Rams are coming into this season with the top ranked defensive line and that 2.5 seconds he has to get rid of the ball within is going to be faster against this front. I believe that Bills new offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, will know this going in and set up more opportunities for Allen to get out of the pocket and make plays with his legs that very few quarterbacks can make. I can also see a couple designed runs in the game plan.
Josh's Take:
These are two incredibly talented rosters with championship aspirations and we could be getting a Super Bowl preview in game one of the season. Since there hasn't been a repeat champion since the '04-'05 New England Patriots, I doubt the Rams will win it all this year-- but I would be stupidly impressed if they can get that done. I think this game will be a shootout, potentially even an overtime thriller. I don't think we see anything more than a 10 point difference to end this game, but we're sure to see fireworks on both sides of the ball. Von Miller against the team he won a Super Bowl with last year, Bobby Wagner (finally) playing in a significant game again, and two quarterbacks (Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford) with all the arm strength in the world. Oh.. I can't forget Cooper Kupp, who lead the league in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns, the first wideout to accomplish this feat since Steve Smith Sr. in 2004-- and Smith was tied with other receivers in both receptions and touchdowns. Kupp won't repeat that kind of production but he'll still be a top receiver this season, I think he has a chance at leading the league in receptions once again, however with the array of weapons on Los Angeles' roster-- touchdowns won't come as frequently.
The Bills come in with a top ranked defense, a top ranked quarterback in Josh Allen, and one of the best receivers in the league with Stefon Diggs. Tight end Dawson Knox just inked a four year, $53 million extension to stay in Buffalo, and all these weapons together are impressive, however the Rams have more weapons. Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee, Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson Jr., being paired with the star-power of Kupp and Stafford might be too much for the Buffalo Bills. Especially when considering Rams head coach Sean McVay hasn't lost a week one game in his career, sitting pretty at 5-0, I believe soon to be 6-0.
Ethan's Bet: Josh Allen Rushing Attempts O6.5 (-125) (Caesar's Sportsbook)
Josh's Bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (+155), Passing Yards O274.5 (-114) [Parlay into +324] (Fanduel)